Wednesday, 6 October 2010

About

I started this website at the end of August 2009, posting selections for free. These selections were instances where I thought that the market had miss-priced the soccer match in favour of the away team too much.

Therefore, between 29/09/09 and 27/02/10 I posted selections where I LAYED THE AWAY TEAM. Over these 5 months, there were 35 selections, of which 31 won. This resulted in a slight level stakes profit, but there wasn't too much of an edge; I was successful, but it simply wasn't profitable enough.

During this period, I had also been selecting matches where I thought that the price had favoured the home team too much. So I had been recording selections privately where I LAYED THE HOME TEAM, but did not post these publicly to the website. However, from 01/03/10, I decided to start posting these selections to the website, because these had proven to be more profitable than the matches where I had identified that the price favoured the away team too much.

So, since 01/03/10 all selections have been LAYING THE HOME TEAM where I believe that the market for the match has priced the game too much in favour of the home team. The prices I have been quoting the lays at have been on the multiples market on Betfair. This is around 7% higher than what you can get on the singles market, which is especially harsh, but allows significant room for movement in the market when placing large bets.

To prove that this is not some elaborate hoax, I have been proofing these selections to the WorldSoccer forum, in addition to posting the selections on this website. I will also periodically post my betfair statements on this site to prove that I am backing these selections with my own money.

I would recommend laying for a liability of one fifth of your dedicated betting bank for capital growth, or for income, lay a fixed amount of between one tenth and one fifth (one tenth would be a lot safer), and withdraw off when your betting bank is above a certain level.

At the moment, these selections are free to everyone. As you can see from the results, they are proving extremely profitable. You just have to be patient, as there are only a handful of selections in a month. There are relatively few markets that I am able to identify as being significantly miss-priced.

1 comment:

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